Thursday, November 27, 2008

Hovde signs off

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, it's not nice to display excessive schadenfreude over this:
I have resigned from The Columbian editorial board and today’s submission is my last regularly scheduled column for The Columbian, although my face will pop up on this page from time to time with occasional columns in the future. This more casual relationship with the paper is the result of my pursuit of other opportunities.
But WOO-HOO! WOO-HOO! (think Harry Caray, "Cubs Win! Cubs Win!).

The downside of this of course is that Hovde's departure is driven less by her dreadful writing style and cockamamie opinions, but more by the financial state of The Columbian.  It's a further sign of the deteriorating financial condition of the paper rather than a move by management to improve the quality of the paper.

It's unclear what Hovde means by "other opportunities", but it's doubtful that they would include a paid gig with Focus on the Family in light of their mass layoffs, but who knows.  During her tenure on The Columbian's op-ed page, Hovde was a master of the copy n' paste technique for press releases from the likes of Focus on the Family or the Evergreen Freedom Foundation.  

The right wing infrastructure owes Hovde big time for being their mouthpiece over the past decade.  It remains to be seen where she lands, and more importantly where The Columbian editorial page shifts.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Democrats weak on national security

Obama administration says so:

Sources tell ABC News that Defense Secretary Robert Gates will be staying on in the top Pentagon job, for at least the first year of the Obama administration. "It is a done deal," a source close to the process tells ABC News.

Gates, while a registered independent, has served numerous Republican administrations. President George W. Bush nominated Gates to replace the Donald Rumsfeld after the 2006 midterm elections, when the war in Iraq was spiraling out of control.

Kinda hard to build up your own national security bona fides when you keep appointing Republicans to run your defense establishment. Bush never considered keeping Republican Bill Cohen on staff, but somehow Democrats find it necessary to make this move.

Perhaps it's all political cover for the re-deployment of multiple brigades to Afghanistan. When things inevitably turn out bad, blame can be assigned to Gates, the "it was his idea" defense.

That typo "the Donald Rumsfeld" is pretty funny at least. He was truly an entity of known unknown powers.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Congratulations chumps

You just bought a bunch of Citibank branch and ATM locations in Bangalore (and a bunch of other places in India):


You don't like globalization you say? Well SUCK. ON. THIS.

Glad to know that we can guarantee the world's access to shitty banks. Meanwhile, we'll demand that the Big 3 automakers come begging for alms to Washington D.C. And they better not come in their executive jets, but only by walking the Via Dolorosa with chains across their backs.

"Too big to fail" only applies to those with ATM operations in Mumbai, not some unionized outfit with manufacturing sites in Ohio.

Update: Kari Chisholm over at BlueOregon gets it absolutely spot on:
There's some serious class warfare going on here; and as usual, it's a war of the rich on the working class. Sure, every member of Congress knows a bank president, a stock broker, a hedge fund manager - and very few know the engineers, technicians, mechanics, and sales people that populate the auto industry.
Admittedly, the Big 3 automakers didn't have their numbers together in last week's congressional hearings, but neither has the banking industry.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Health care bubble pops

If you can't get behind single-payer, just travel abroad:
The health insurer Wellpoint is testing a new program that gives covered patients the option of going to India for elective surgery, with no out-of-pocket medical costs and free travel for both the patient and a companion.

[...]

The potential savings are significant. Knee surgery that costs $70,000 to $80,000 in the United States can be performed in India for $8,000 to $10,000, including follow-up care and rehabilitation, Dr. Hashmi said. Similar savings could be achieved for such common procedures as hip replacements and spine surgery.
If India isn't to your liking, there's always South Korea:

South Korea has joined Thailand, Singapore, India and other Asian nations in the lucrative business of medical tourism. Heart bypasses, spinal surgery, hip-joint replacements, cosmetic surgery — procedures that may cost tens of thousands of dollars in the United States — can often be done for one-third or even one-tenth of the cost in Asia, with much shorter waiting times and by specialists often trained in the West.

Americans fleeing the high cost of medicine at home have spurred the trend. Last year, 750,000 Americans sought cheaper treatment abroad, a figure projected to reach 6 million by 2010, according to a recent study by the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, a consultancy.
The health care cost spiral can't continue forever, especially in an economic downturn. Already, the construction of new hospitals is being hit by the credit crunch. Meanwhile, closer to home, Clark College will cut the number of slots open to aspiring health care professionals:
Clark College President Bob Knight and other community college leaders were previously told to brace for state funding cuts of up to 20 percent in the 2009-11 budget cycle.

Now, the cuts might reach 30 percent, given a dire new state budget forecast.

“That is huge. That is major, major impact on a community college,” a grim Knight said on Wednesday. “We’re going to have to make drastic cuts.”

[...]

Several teaching faculty, classified staff and administrative positions will go unfilled. That would impact deaf teacher training, nursing practice instruction, engineering program enrollment and a proposed autism research and training program.
Hospitals being mothballed, prospective patients traveling abroad, and training programs being cut does not add up to healthy industry. Assumptions made earlier that health care jobs would be plentiful or that the expansion of health care costs as a percentage of GDP would grow indefinitely will have to be reined in.

Simply put, incrementalist approaches to health care reform are not going to cut it in this environment. The Obama/Daschle plan for yet another version of employer provided coverage belies the simple fact that not everyone has a job. Making health care coverage based on employment isn't a safety net, and it will do nothing to contain costs. That's why just about every other civilized country has some form of publicly provided health care. Instead our system is based on gross margin, not health outcomes.

I'm sure the Obama plan stands a good chance of passage, but unfortunately, it represents another patchwork of federally mandated regulation that will do little to stem the underlying crisis.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Ricoculous

A bit out of date, but why is the lame, unfunny, and non-African-American Fred Armisen given four to eight years of trying to poke fun at Obama while this guy toils in internet obscurity?

Lieberman survives with ease

Fantastic:
Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) easily won a vote to remain chairman of a key committee today and will stay in the Democratic caucus despite his high-profile criticism of President-elect Barack Obama and his support of Sen. John McCain during the presidential campaign.
And this is choice:
Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) said that "Joe Lieberman is a Democrat. He's part of this caucus."
That's a pretty bold statement, since Lieberman was the 2006 Democratic primary loser in his Connecticut senate race. If for example Bernie Sanders had campaigned for Ralph Nader, he'd be booted out of the caucus. But it's okay to support Republican presidential nominees without any repercussions.

I'm no longer surprised by any of this, and you can expect more of the same from this Congress. Mark my words, these people will be campaigning for Lieberman in his 2012 senate bid, with constant warnings issued against the base to stay out.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Vigil for Civility starts early

Ah yes, Republicans and their Vigil for Civility, going strong in Rexburg, Idaho:
Whoolery and his wife couldn't believe it when their second and third graders got off the bus last week and told them what other students were saying.

"They just hadn't heard anything like this before," said Whoolery. "They were chanting on the bus, 'Assassinate Obama. Assassinate Obama.' Then adding in a name sometimes of a classmate on the bus, 'Assassinate Obama and Kate.'"
Rexburg is part of Madison County, which went 87.5% for McCain. Randy Stapilus asks the legitimate question of where these kids learned this kind of behavior. In a vacuum?

It's going to be a long eight years of this. And it is most likely a two-term presidency if this kind of vitriol continues.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Happy Armistice Day



It's the 90th anniversary. And 110-year-old Harry Patch is still going strong.

Monday, November 10, 2008

Protect your kids from this man



He's dropping F-bombs and then worse, has the temerity to blame his Ambien dosage. Great, cable news is dominated by drug-addled obscenity spewers.

There's nothing the FCC can do, since they don't regulate cable. However, our local cable franchise authority should probably be alerted to this menace. I do hope that Margaret Tweet joins me in this cause.

What's actually pretty funny about all this is Scarborough's claim that he's recounting a Rahm Emanuel story.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Facepalm



Well, at least with the economic downturn, Mielke won't be able to completely pave over Clark County any time soon:
Republican Tom Mielke pulled into a 78-vote lead over Democrat Pam Brokaw Friday afternoon, pushing the tightest local race of the year toward a possible recount.

The outcome will determine which party has a majority on the three-member commission, which controls development patterns outside the county’s cities and sets budgets for the sheriff’s office, jail, mental health treatment programs and other services.
This one isn't over yet, but the trend is not our friend. Every single race has seen late arriving Republican votes come in, and like Chinese water torture, the drip drip drip of ballots has eroded Democratic leads. I'm not entirely clear why Republican voters come in at the last minute, maybe Reagan had a Twelfth Commandment, "Thou shalt turn in your ballots on election day, but not before". I'd be hard pressed to give credence to the vaunted 72-hour GOTV program as a factor, but who knows.

It's very difficult running a county commissioner race in a presidential year, the oxygen tends to get sucked up by all of the up-ticket races. There's only so much bandwidth to go around, and my hunch is that efforts were expended on Obama and Gregoire without worrying too much about Brokaw's race.

It would appear that the obituary on Mielke's career will have to wait. Hopefully the majority of those 2,224 challenged ballots came out of the 49th district.

Heffter's Greatest Hits

With Darcy Burner conceding in the 8th Congressional District race against the the 401st most (least?) effective incumbent, Dave Reichert, it's time to revisit some of Seattle Times reporter Emily Heffter's greatest hits.

In checking May 15th, 2008: After describing Dave Reichert as uncomfortable with raising campaign cash, she writes:

Burner, on the other hand, embraces the money chase. At a recent gathering in Puyallup, she asked supporters who had already written one check that evening to write another.

"Feel free to buy another share of Darcy Burner," she joked. "I'm not that expensive."

Hardy har har. I haven't checked the figures, but the average donation size for Burner was on a completely different scale than all of Reichert's PAC money. She then spilled quite a bit of ink in profiling "Democrat" Jim Vaughn:

Jim Vaughn, a former military officer who calls himself a "blue-dog Democrat," said he believes Reichert is best for the job. He called Burner "part of the liberal progressive extreme."

Vaughn spent about $3,800 of his own money on his longshot campaign. So far, he's in third place, with less than 4 percent of the votes.

Seriously? The state paper of record paying attention to a primary participant who garnered 4 percent of the vote? They spilled more ink on this guy than Michael Delavar, who actually won his primary. And then Heffter writes something more appropriate to gossip columns then political reportage:
Part of it is her nature. She's chatty. But it's also part of her campaign to shed an image as a Harvard-educated Microsoftie and appeal to more middle-class voters in the 8th Congressional District, where she is again challenging Congressman Dave Reichert.
Chatty? Why not just say "bitch"? At the point this story is penned (July 21), it's reasonable to believe that Heffter holds some sort of personal animus against Burner, especially the Harvard part. One can only conclude that Heffter has some sort of inferiority complex with her University of Montana journalism degree.

As the polling in the race appeared to be going Darcy Burner's way, Heffter went straight for the jugular:
But while she took courses in economics, Burner doesn't have a degree in the subject from Harvard.
Which of course was a complete fabrication since the former Harvard dean who designed the degree program described Burner's description as accurate. But the problem here is the fact is buried in a comment on a blog, not delivered to hundreds of thousands of voters' homes. And Heffter nor her editors never did issue a retraction or correction.

We're always going to have this problem of Republican owned local papers trying to dictate races, unless we completely de-fund their business model. It's why I'm ambivalent about the future for traditional media. Rather than reporting the news, they become the news. There's plenty of Emily Heffters in the journalistic pipeline to get the hit pieces written under deadline.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Traditional media tamps down enthusiasm

We can always count on the chattering class to be the buzz kill:
But while the energy of his supporters could be a tremendous political asset as Mr. Obama works to enact his agenda after taking office in January, his aides said they were looking to temper hopes that he would be able to solve the nation’s problems or fully reverse Bush administration policies quickly and easily, especially given the prospect of a deep and long-lasting recession.
Yes sir, traditional media, sir! We'll get in line, just as soon as we stop joyous spontaneous rallies outside the White House. Look, this is like winning the World Cup, Super Bowl and the Daytona 500 all in one after a two year campaign cycle. Let people have their moment of jubilation.

Using unnamed sources or "aides" is a typical Nagourney trick. The reality is that most Americans realize there is a long road ahead, that undoing 28 years of Reagan/Bush policy is not going to unwind overnight. The institutional marrow in many departments, especially the Justice Department, is so deeply wounded that it will take years to mend.

Norman Ornstein, one of the last conservatives actually worth listening too, made a salient point earlier on C-SPAN today about the background check process alone taking months for presidential appointees. So no, change is not coming overnight, but that doesn't excuse Nagourney's hackery.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Clark County GOP in Denial

Losing a loved one can be a traumatic experience, and local Republicans clearly lost the electorate, who decided to go to the prom with the better looking Democratic party.

Michael Andersen at The Columbian writes about Democrats gaining the upper hand in Clark County and gets a few statements from local Republicans that exhibit the initial stage of grief, Denial:
Ryan Hart, chairman of the local Republican Party, said he was dismayed by Republican losses in the district.

But he didn’t think his party will need to change its message to reverse them.

[...]

“I think that this is still a center-right country,” Hart said. “We have a message that reflects the majority of the electorate. … We just need to find candidates that can clearly articulate that message.”
It's not my business to dole out advice to Republicans, but the overinflated confidence of these statements in light of facts on the ground deserves a response. The fact is, voters know that conservative ideas are a complete and abject failure, and that's why they're voting Republicans out in two successive elections.

The fact that an African-American candidate outperformed the Bush-Cheney ticket of 2004 in predominately white suburban swing Clark County should be providing Republicans a wake up call that their message of divisiveness and economic plutocracy is no longer welcome. We don't want government interference in our personal lives, but we do want a leg up when it comes to educational opportunities in the global marketplace. Thankfully for Democrats, Republicans don't seem to ken the concept.

I'm looking forward to the Party of Palin making a run at 2012, fielding candidates up and down the ticket that are completely incurious about the world around them, or think that Africa is a country. You can call that level of ignorance the "real America" all you want, but Americans are smarter than that.

Benton gains in the 17th

Clark County Elections just released revised figures:
Don Benton - 24,642
David Carrier - 24,373
That's quite the swing from the initial 147 vote advantage margin for Carrier, continuing the theory that Republicans locally turn in their ballots late. It ain't over til it's over, but this one is increasingly looking like Benton holds.

Too bad labor went with the "winner".

Stevens holding on

Just mind numbing:

Crutcher's friend, Patricia Eychaner, 19, also of Eagle River, said she voted for Stevens because even though she "felt like kicking him" when he was found guilty of corruption, he's also done a lot of good for Alaska.

"He has done so many great things," she said. "Everyone deserves a second chance."

That's teflon for you. That "second chance" will mean expulsion from the Senate. Unless Dan Inouye (D-Senescence) has other ideas.

Rossi ready to concede, Aneurin ready to send beer

The Associated Press reports that Dino Rossi is getting ready to concede:
A source close to the Dino Rossi campaign has told the Associated Press that he will concede defeat in Washington governor's election.

Four years in the making, the rematch between Gov. Chris Gregoire and Republican Rossi ended sooner than even the candidates expected.

Within a few hours of the polls closing Tuesday, Gregoire was declared the winner. She was ahead by 54 percent, compared to Rossi's 46 percent, in unofficial returns with about 55 percent of the votes counted early Wednesday.
My earlier gloom and doom post appears to be full of it. I'm still waiting on a second round of results for Clark County before heading to Costco for that case of Deschutes Brewery IPA. Free beers for Gregoire's Clark County staff! Hey, if Captain Morgan can put the party back into politics, so can we.

Update: Rossi concedes.

DGA explains Gregoire's success

Somehow I finagled an invite to the Democratic Governors Association conference call with Executive Director Nathan Daschle and Governor Joe Manchin (D-WV) who provided a bit of insight into their game plan for this cycle.

The goal was to defend all their incumbents, raise $20 million, and add one seat. They succeeded in doing that last night. As to Gregoire's win over Rossi, Daschle chalked that up to her record on reducing crime and expanding healthcare. Rossi just never had a message. According to Manchin, the best politics is performance, and with Gregoire, voters were judging her on her record.

Manchin did some spinning on "clean coal", since he's from West Virginia and all, but you can't blame a guy for pushing his state's interests.

I may have to re-brand the blog, since lobbing questions from "Politics is a blood sport" as compared to Congressional Quarterly or Governing Magazine is a bit much. And that's too bad as there was plenty of time for questions.

Good night

Some huge Senate races still left to be decided:

1. Al Franken up by just over a 1,000 votes, with 96% reporting in the Minnesota senate race.

2. Gordon Smith up by 2,500 votes over Jeff Merkley in the Oregon senate race. Multnomah County has only reported 27% of their results, with Merkley taking a 69% share there. I'll predict Merkley wins this, but it's really really close.

3. Alaska, WTF! How is a convicted felon and tax cheat Ted Stevens leading 49% to Mark Begich's 46%? The snowmobile fumes are finally getting to them. Either that or lets hope that Anchorage hasn't reported all their numbers yet.

If Dems run the tables on these last three races, that's a 59 seat majority, 58 if you boot out Joe Lieberman.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Speechless

It's quite the night for Democrats, both nationally and locally. It's been a long time in coming, and this one feels better than 1992.

Obama is up 53-45 in Clark County alone, so that confirms my prediction he'd be the first Democrat to win here since 1988. This has some pretty wide ramifications both mid and long term.

Christine Gregoire has a margin over Rossi by 483 votes in Clark County. We'll see if that holds up as that dictates whether or not I owe the Gregoire people a case of beer.

Tim Probst takes the hotly contested 17th LD state house race. Congratulations Tim!

David Carrier holds a razor thin 147 vote lead over Don Benton in the 17th LD state senate race. If that holds, that's truly the surprise of the night. The possibility that Democrats could sweep all three seats in the 17th is pretty amazing.

All in all, the repudiation of the Bush years is in full effect.

Election Predictions, Things to Look For

Here's a few predictions and things to look for in tonight's election extravaganza:

1. North Carolina, Virginia election returns. Does the absolutely vile Elizabeth Dole go down to defeat? Will Obama take Virginia? For me, these two races set the tone for the night.

2. Connecticut, the Chris Shays problem. If Chris Shays (R-CT) holds on, that's a win for the status quo and so called "bi-partisan" solutions. If he goes down, that's a sign of a change election.

3. The Midwest. Will Franken take out Coleman? Polling shows Obama slightly ahead in Missouri, and if he wins there, it's lights out for McCain.

4. California Proposition 8. The ultimate indicator of how much strength the religious right has. If this does pass, expect more of these kinds of measures "protecting marriage". Hey, if you don't want to marry a dude, don't marry a dude, it's that simple.

5. Darcy Burner, 8th CD race. It's the hottest congressional race in the entire region, and getting Darcy over the top means an excellent night for Democrats.

6. David Carrier, 17th LD state senate. Don Benton hasn't had to face the absolute onslaught of resources put into this race in any prior cycle. I would have earlier predicted a 53-47 result in Benton's favor here, but close watchers of PDC filings know the degree to which the state Democratic infrastructure has gone to the mat here. Benton is running scared here, and is hopefully running out of time. If early returns come in for Carrier, then it's game on.

Some predictions:

1. Tim Probst takes 17th LD position 1, besting Joe the State House Candidate.

2. Obama ekes out a win in Clark County, being the first Democratic nominee since Michael Dukakis to win the county.

3. Gregoire loses Clark County, but wins state-wide, 52-48. I seem to have touched a nerve with some folks with my prior post, and if you truly believe that 4x8's aren't effective down here, you need to go back to campaign school.

Mayor of Washougal injured, cited

This is small beer considering the truly historic nature of today's election, but deserves a mention nonetheless since it involves a local elected official. The Columbian reports:
Washougal Mayor Stacee Sellers has taken a leave of absence following a single-vehicle accident, the city announced on Monday.

Sellers was injured, not seriously, in an accident that occurred Saturday in Skamania County, the city said.
What The Columbian didn't pick up on is that Mayor Sellers is being cited with a misdemeanor Negligent Driving in the 2nd Degree. A first degree Negligent Driving charge would involve alcohol, so that's not the case here.

Accidents happen, especially in inclement weather, and we hope Mayor Sellers is recuperating.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Ted Stevens, legal tax evader

We now return to our regular scheduled Republican bashing program

Alaskan senator and convicted felon Ted Stevens (R-VECO) received $250,000 in "gifts" from political contributors looking to buy influence. You'd expect Stevens to have to pay taxes on the gifts, but not so fast:
But in a recent discussion with a former IRS official about Palin's inclusion of the fair market value for the use of her RNC-purchased and loaned designer wardrobe, I learned that the IRS examiners will likely be very leery of auditing these political figures, for fear it will be seen as political reprisal rather than routine enforcement and review of likely tax evasion. Why? Because of the overreaching legislation that was enacted a decade ago after a series of hearings spotlighting purported IRS abuses of taxpayers, though most of the abuses turned out to be exaggerated, at best.
And who was leading the charge against so called IRS abuses? That would've been former Republican senator Trent Lott (R-MS) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY). When Republican senators don't like IRS audits on themselves, just change the rules! If normal people had accepted $250 large in gifts, you'd be dang sure the IRS would want their cut, but for convicted felon senators, not so much.

The stupid, it burns!

Gregoire blowing it in Clark County?

We tried, we really tried. After the razor thin 2004 gubernatorial contest that was essentially decided by the hard work of volunteers chasing down unsigned absentee ballots, Southwest Washington Democrats informed the Gregoire folks that they needed to step up their game for 2008.

It's pretty clear that sound advice was ignored. As I wrote way back in November, 2007:
Gregoire ran an absolutely pathetic race down in Clark County in 2004, and I just don't see her doing any better in '08. The builders will come out in force for Rossi, and there's nothing to countervail that on the Democratic side in Clark County now that she's kicked the base in the shins.
So let's break down the problems in meaningful bites that any campaign operative should be able to understand:

1. Sign Wars - Rossi in a walk. Is there any 4 x 8's for Gregoire in the entire county? Not many. Rossi signs are fairly ubiquitous, an indication of organizational strength remaining from 2004. That artistic powder blue and red may work in Seattle, but down here, not so much.

2. Air Wars - Not even close, Rossi again. The common complaint from Democratic operatives is that ad spending in Clark County is a waste, since you have to buy for the entire Portland Metro area. Rossi's people have figured this out, going up with targeted cable channel advertising. Also, that "Gregoire wants to impose an income tax" ad is resonating. There's nothing from the Gregoire side countering that, so expect split Obama/Rossi ballots. Depressing.

3. Campaign Stops - Rossi again. The governor decided to visit Vancouver this past Wednesday, in the middle of the day. That's an indication of a campaign that has zero understanding of her supporters who have work obligations or commute to jobs in Oregon. Rossi visited yesterday, when everyone has a chance to get their motivation lifted for the home stretch. If Clark County is a priority as you say, you visit on evenings and weekends.

4. Ground Game - Tied, with a slight edge to Gregoire. Indeed, there is an army of volunteers for the Obama organization locally, but that's counterbalanced by BIAW front groups such as Walking for Washington. Republicans don't need volunteers, they just pay 'em.

Chris Gregoire has been a solid governor for this state, taking a pragmatic approach that has garnered plaudits from the business community (ranking as the 3rd best business environment according to Forbes) as well as being a stalwart for children's health insurance. But the case has to be sold into the dysfunctional media market of Clark County, and surely a few well targeted cable ad buys would have gone a long way in rectifying that situation.

Waking up on November 5th to a President-Elect Obama and a Governor-Elect Rossi is an outcome state Democrats should be concerned about. Too bad the overall campaign is making this an uphill battle.

Update: Brad Shannon at The Olympian gets ahold of an internal memo penned by Michael King, who should be familiar to some Clark County folks:
The end result is that the Governor will likely be behind on Election Night, by as many as 4 percentage points, due to the simple fact that her strongest counties will have a smaller percentage of their votes tabulated than Rossi's counties.
Read the whole thing, how depressing. I hate to be all gloom and doom here and rain on the Obama victory dance, but this is starting to suck. This strategy of doing nothing outside of King County is stuck on stupid.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

The vaunted 72-hour Program

Taken exactly 71 hours before polls close in Clark County, the Clark County Republican campaign office:



It's entirely possible that they all showed up an hour earlier. Or maybe the empty parking lot and closed blinds obscure a machine hard at work. Whatever it is, don't forget to sign up for actual organized GOTV efforts in Clark County.

Deep thought: I thought Bomar was an "independent", and yet there's his sign in the window. Talk about brand identity confusion.

(h/t to FiveThirtyEight.com for the wonderful idea)

GOTV Anecdotal

Targeting of voters has gotten a lot better since the horse and buggy days of 2004. I don't want to give away everything, but let's just say the GOTV maps are miles ahead of where they were four years ago. I don't know if this is the result of Howard Dean's 50-state strategy or the Obama operation, but whoever, it's heartening to see.

The campaign office is truly a beehive of activity, and the tone is businesslike. Not a lot of socializing or hanging out at the water cooler, it's pick up your clipboard and go. There's a sense that this is a once in a lifetime wave election for Democrats, and everyone is stepping up their game.

While canvassing through an apartment complex, I was confronted by some surly apartment manager claiming private property rights and that I'd have to take my door hangers down. Poppycock. I explained that state law was pretty clear that election canvassing wasn't soliciting and that she should take it up with my boss, state party chair Dwight Pelz. She backed way off. That's good I haven't lost my somewhat confrontational nature when dealing with Republican property managers :)

Did I follow the script? Are you kidding? It's enough that people are answering the door, I'm not going to run them through twenty questions. I'm just there with a friendly reminder to get their ballots in, and then joking that I'd be back if they didn't turn in their ballot soon. There was a couple of good conversations on the doorsteps, but there's really no need for persuasion at this point.

My best doorstep was the single mom with an infant son who wasn't aware of Christine Gregoire's fight for children's health insurance. She does now, and our side just picked up a vote. When you can connect policy positions with people's real lives, that's what makes GOTV work so worthwhile.

So stop missing out -- get in touch with the Obama campaign GOTV effort here. Or call Eric Withee at 541-912-1512.