As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered an upbeat outlook on the nation’s economy Tuesday, Portland economist Bill Conerly spoke optimistically about this region.
"I think we’re in the neighborhood of the bottom of the recession," Conerly told the nearly 250 people gathered to hear his economic forecast.
"It’s not going to feel like it’s over until we regain all that lost ground," he said. "That’s going to be the summer of next year."
This quarter will be one of transition, he said.
...
He predicted an eventual return to the rapid population growth Clark County has experienced in the past, perhaps reaching 3.5 percent a year.
As to the Fed’s claim that the equity of homeowners as a group stands at 43%, she points out that what the Fed neglects to tell you is that roughly a third of them have their houses free and clear. Lo and behold, some basic arithmetic reveals that 67% of homeowners with mortgages have equity of less than 15%. That, Stephanie comments drily, suggests the “destruction priced into the credit markets hardly seems out of whack with potential reality.”Gosh, who to believe? Some paid cheerleader over at the Heathman Vancouver, or the reality on the ground, with the specter of ARM re-sets coming just around the corner? And somehow population growth is supposed to return to prior levels? With what job base?
And while, thanks to “the transfer of toxic assets to taxpayers” and the magic of accounting legerdemain, the scarred financials to some significant extent may be spared further pain, the same, alas, can’t be said for the nonfinancial sector. Little recognized, she insists, is how much the extraordinary gains in domestic nonfinancial profits from the low in 2001 to the peak in 2006 — a stunning rise of 388% — owed to the housing bubble.”
Who are these people who spout this nonsense that denies the very serious down-draft built in to our national economy?
0 comments:
Post a Comment